Posts Tagged ‘variance’

How has the February shots gone you might ask?

 

Zach-Lavine-wins-the-Slam-Dunk-Contest-2015-with-4-SICK-dunks!!-(All-4-dunks!)

 

More then two weeks into February and things are going pretty well.  February has been filled with typical trials away from poker, along with some at the tables.  For a change I did not run terrible while moving up a stake.  It took ~2500 hands before the cooler hit.  To be fair I was on quite the heater prior to running bad, and it was at least some comfort that I was ahead of where I started the month when I decided to move up.  None the less poker is pretty hard when you can not win a turned over hand and then to make matters worse, my computer started to cry when the new Note Caddy update came out.  As a result I decided to revert to the older stable version, and I must have done something and messed up all my notes, my 800 custom notes :'(.  The good news was that I did not complete this update until after my weekend sessions I did have plenty of time to correct and write some notes.  I also had a bunch backed up but not them all and there was going to be a lot of work to do.  So I put my head down over the week and got done a bunch of them.  I also managed to get in a few Skype calls for some reviews and hand analysis which always helps.  Also crying about it was not going to get them done so all I could do was work.  I did manage to get most of them back up before the weekend.  I also found some time to look over the first few thousand hands at 100plo and looked to see what the better regulars are doing and how I can incorporate some of that into my game.  So after having my notes crap out, running well below expectations I managed to break out on Sunday and really run well and put in a good amount of hands.  After getting my notes up I managed to put in ~6500 hands between Saturday and Tuesday and finally ran like the sun towards the end.  I am really happy about this mainly because I want to put in the majority of my volume at 100plo this month so that I can start to really clear some bonus dollars and I want to get in as many hands as possible this year at mid stakes and the sooner that I can get through 100plo the closer I am to the higher stakes.  Obviously a profitable poker player is most happy about his winrate, but I am pretty happy with the trimming that I have made from my ranges.  I think that so far this month I have done a good job of getting out of some of those trashy good looking hands that I play.  The biggest contribution to this is probably the fact that I continue to trim tables as I move up.  I also just keep working on my game and hands that looked like ones way will look a lot different now.

Another thing that has probably helped the focus a bit this week is adding in some zoom to my game.  At the smaller stakes I was very vocal about staying away from zoom.  The majority of the games at regular tables are good and you can often find great seats.  At 100plo I can really start to see a shift from this and the games at the zoom tables are starting to look more appealing.  For instance, as I write this blog, there are 18 tables of zoom compare to 6 of regular tables.  The average pot size at zoom is $24, which is as high as five out of the six tables.  At 50plo there are 17 zoom tables compared to 11 regular tables.  The average pot is $13 compared and 4 of the 11 regular tables have higher average pot size.  As you can tell there are a lot more tables running at the smaller stakes outside of zoom, where at 100plo often there are the same four players at a table fighting over a single weaker players money.

 

Anyhow 700 words of poker is enough for me, and its my life so you are probably starting to hear the blah, blah, blahs.  So I will leave you with some gems from this week.

This was probably my favorite, was pretty sure that no one had the straight, and I blocked a lot of the sets and had some nut outs.  Couldn’t get the turn fold and got priced into a call.

 

A957ss

27W7ovY

Next Favorite was getting it in preflop, with AA vs AA vs KKds, runit twice, AND SCOOP IT.

http://www.boomplayer.com/poker-hands/Boom/13051611_EA306BBDD8

 

Which one of the three below do you think I am?

 

GIF-Amused-funny-jaw-drop-LOL-Newman-OMG-Seinfeld-shocked-surprised-GIF_1

 

Outside of poker I have been pressing away at painting some miniatures.  I actually have joined an escalation league at my local games-workshop store.  You start with a kill team which is 200p points and typically one or two units.  You paint and bring to play and as the weeks go on your army grows.  This seems like the perfect thing for me since I am just getting back into warhammer 40k.  I was not going to post any pictures until I got some models completed, but I think that I am going to post some of the near finished models that I have and show some before and after pics with the basing.  It is really an underrated component of the model and the images should drive home the fact that a 15-20 min on each models base can really go a long way.  I am very happy with the way my latest models have turned out and I am probably get near 100 minis on the year painted.  I still think that my goal is going to be to paint he GW two player box to sell and use that to pay for my hobby.  At the moment I am in for ~$300 in WR40k and I actually could field about ~1000 point army with that.  With the escalation league coming up though I think that I am going to finish my blood angels formation and buy some of the new models to paint.  The newest models are the harlequins and they have a joker/jester type of feel to them and I think that I could really have some fun painting them.  My zombicide models are behind on shipping due to the west harbour labour disputes or whatever but that is fine.  I do however check my emails twice a day waiting for the shipping info, but not holding my breath at this point.

Anyhow going to wrap it up, will get a quick update before Thursday with a handful of pictures from my killteam.

Can’t forget get the Giraffes, I typically do not include the Orange line (expected value) since there is so much noise and variance in PLO, but I was definitely on the worse side of it for a week (-15bis over a few thousand hands).  Don’t worry we closed that gap pretty quick.

mid feb 2015

 

 

Well I got taught a hard lesson in perspective last week.  The pervious poker post was titled “A Difficult Week”, and at the time it seemed appropriate.  Then the present has passed and I have another week behind me.  Last week at the cash tables I put in about 7800 hands (~5500 since last Tuesday post), and over those hands I was -28bb/100.  If I fold every hand I would be ~-25bb/100 so performed a little worse then a drinking bird clicking  fold last week.  It was my typical cycle where I play, run bad, then play bad and get into dominated situations, which make me feel like I am running bad, so I play worse, get into worse situations, feel like the deck is punishing me, and around we go for a week.  I did hit a stop loss on Friday, which was a bit disappointing, but it did force me to take a break, and really evaluate my play over the week.

To be fair to myself I did play much better over Saturday and Sunday after thinking about the leaks that where starting to show threw but I just could really not run well, at the cash tables.  Poker can really mess around with you at times.  No doubt at this point you have probably looked a little ahead to my graph and noticed that I dropped about 25bis over my last 5k hands.  However I did manage to pick my run well spots this weekend.

Saturday I managed to win a seat into the TCOOP main event seat.  Your lesson in BBV this week:

Brag; won a $700 seat, Beat; Game is next Sunday at 3:30 so I will likely miss the Super Bowl, Variance; the win brought me back to even for the week.

I really was not keen on counting this as profits though since I was planning on putting it all into the main.  Since it was already spent I basically was still in the hole for the week,  but had a nice $2m freeroll to look forward to the first of February.  But the weekend was not over.  The cash tables where still a bit of a punishment on Sunday.  I again played pretty well, made a few bets on the river that I would like back but pretty happy with my play overall.  Maybe not my best play, but definitely much better play Saturday and Sunday then Thursday and Friday.  However there is always some good tournaments on the go over the weekends and I managed to make a good run again.  I won the $27 six max progressive super knockout (or some other 50 syllable noun that PokerStars can come up with).  I have never played this game, and I am not sure if it is part of the regular schedule but I really hope that it makes it.  This was my third finally table appearance in PLO MTTs (and I also have a FT bubble to my name) over 45 games.  This was also maybe the second or third time that I played a tournament of this type, but I really enjoyed it.  The big ko values at the final table help to add a dynamic which I think that I will play well.  Also there is going to be a lot of money left to play for HU, so you can make some special deals HU or very short handed and still have some decent money to play for.  As this game went I managed to get four of the final six bounties at the six handed final table.  I also managed to collect on all the large bounties, and when we went four handed I took out the two other players with +$200 bounties (so I keep +$100 and another $100 goes on my head).  I am of the school of thinking that to win any tournament you need to run well, and I do think that I was in a great spot in the later hands but I am sure that I played very well.  Here are the final knock out hands that I had against my opponents, as you will notice I was doing pretty well with my pf equity and post flop equity.  The most marginal hand was my AQ86$ds however the player on the button was playing super wide and I think it was worth going after his bounty since it was larger then the pay jump at the time.

AQ86$ds
http://wt.ag/1y3GTn3

AQ68ds

 

AKQJss
http://wt.ag/1y3I5a4

AQKJss

KTJ9$ds
http://wt.ag/1y3GzEX

KJT9ds

AKT6$ss
http://wt.ag/1y3GLnN

AKT6ss

QQ79$ds
http://wt.ag/1y3GRvu

QQ97ds

 

We did make a deal HU.  I felt like a deal was a good idea, the payouts where ~$720 for first, $500 for second.  the winner was also going to take $400 in bouties, so that made the HU match a $620 sit and go.  While I figured I had an edge, smoothing out the variance is always nice and I managed to get a deal for $675 leaving us with the ~400 bounty to play for (which I won).

plo win

So this was a huge week saver.  I was pretty frustrated with poker and it was nice to get another PLO MTT score.  I did forget to play the $82 PLO TCOOP game which I think was a huge miss, but these things happen.  In the end, I dug deep and managed to pull out some of that lovely green for the week.  So excluding the TCOOP main ticket, I managed about -$500 at the cash game tables, but +$1200 in MTTs, add in another few hundred in rake back and I can live with those results.

 

YTD Graph in bbs

PLO YTD 01-27-2015

 

Game wise it was a pretty slow week.  I do have a few models that I would like to get painted before the weekend.  I want to have finished my Rivet Wars models, and the last of my Arcadia Quest models.  I also did not get in any games this week.  It has been about -25c every day this week with the wind chill so I have been inside a little too much.  With how little I played this week I wish I got in more other things done.  I did spend a bunch of time mauling over the idea of getting some Warhammer 40k models, but in the end it always feels like such a financial commitment, and the models might never get played with.  I figured that a 2k points army would cost about $800+, and thanks to GW I actually would be dumb to buy the models that I would like because they would just get punished in the game :(.   I think that tonight I am going to spend some time catching up on some painting and modeling, and get back to poker tomorrow.  I really would like to get the volume up a bit, far behind my volume goal for the month, but definitely near the gross net profits that I would like to start and play 100plo.  It will be interesting to see how I do in TCOOP next week, anything over a min cash could go a long away in my shots at 100plo.

 

 

This week was a lot more difficult then the start of the year.  I have been fighting a bit of the flu over the week and it really hurt the volume and grind.  Add to the fact that I was running pretty bad threw the week at poker and it was not helping.  I was actually starting to wonder if my stop losses where not set correctly because I swear that I was loosing a ton.  I did have two cheats this week with looking at my results.  First was when I was running so bad and loosing what seemed like every 3b/4b pot.  I sat out and took a look to see if I had surpassed the stop loss of eight buy ins.  I was at -7.5 so it was a bitter sweet victory.  Victory since I have still have not hit a stop loss since I stopped watching my results and focused on my poker.  Bitter because it was still a -7.5bis and its hard to get in a position to move up next month when you lose that much in an hour.

The second cheat view was after my first session on Sunday.  I ran like the sun and quickly won every pot over 200bbs.  I had to cheat and look at where I was since the last time I looked things looked pretty miserable.  I won about 13bis in that session, and managed to claw back a lot of the run bad from early in the week.  I never like using the EV line on HM2 to establish how good or bad I am running, but the whole week was pretty bad and it was nice to just flop good for a change and scoop some pots.

This week I did add too many tables at times, mainly because I was not getting in the hours so I was trying to make up for it by adding tables to increase my gross amount of hands.  However next week I am going to get back to my better habits, keep the tables under eight no matter how good they all look, and focus and try to increase my win rate per hand, and boost my hourly that way.  At the start of the month I did have hopes of clearing 30,00 VPPs so that I could cash in some FPPs for a bonus and use that money for 100plo, but if I can maintain a win rate of 10bb/100 pre rack back at 50plo for the month I should have plenty of wiggle room for 100plo in February.

Long story short, I am pretty happy that I ended up in the green this week, considering that I was fighting this flu and not playing great poker in general (really letting my run bad effect my play).  Next week I am really going to focus on getting back to what worked well, less tables, shave some of my preflop range down, and make better river decisions (probably would give myself a 3/10 on my river play last week).

Also to add a little salt to the wounds, Monday night I played the big $27.  I did not realize that I had a ticket in my cashier for over a year now.  I managed to come 24th for ~$125 when I lost a 40+bb pot with QQ<KQs.  If I won that race I probably would have been in the top five in chips and my table was actually pretty nice.  However was just not meant to be.  I am really trying to keep my head up today about it.  Going in  was looking at it like a free roll, but it is never nice to be twenty players away from $5,000 and have to settle taking a beat and walking away with ~$100.

 

YTD Jan 19.2015

 

On another note, I am getting pretty excited for the next few weeks.  Any day I will be finding out when I can expect my Zombicide season three shipment.  There is also a hot new Conan game on Kickstarter.

This seems like its going to be a steal.  The figures look great, the smallest harp that I could have is that it would be nice for additional poses on some of the five plus quantity models, however there is sheer value in this game from a modeling, painting stand point.   There is also wave two of Rivet Wars hitting shelves this week, and some Arcadia Quest minis next week.  I made a promise to myself that I am not buying either until I get my current models up and painted and pictures here.

Also I am going to doing a tabletop twitch channel.  I am still trying to get some games organised for this but if you would be interested in hanging out and playing a few feel free to contact me.

 

STAYING ALIVE

Posted: January 22, 2014 in Blog, Media, Uncategorized
Tags: , , , , , , ,

saturday-night-fever_2352150_GIFSoup.com

Wow I cannot believe that it’s been so long since I posted a blog.  I have written some quick blogs here and there over the last month but I have been sick, tired or busy and never got them completed or posted.

Anyhow for all you out there I am staying alive.  If you follow me on twitter or face you probably are under the impression that I am on the biggest down swing ever but I am really just frustrated with how the last two months have gone.  A lot of break even poker with tournaments, and a lot of missed opportunities.  These things are going to happen when you add tournaments into the grind but I have two tournaments this month where I finished third being by far the best player in the game, and a final table bubble in the Sunday major on iPoker.  The iPoker game was the Sunday that just passed; I came 11th for ~1500 and first was ~45000.

Graph is going to follow, the down swing at the start was me trying to grind threw a super cold.  I was sick from about December 27th to January 9th.  Since I had high goals for volumes, profits, life etc.  I did not want to get behind the ball so I got grinding and instead I got myself into a whole.  These things happen.  Anyhow the tournaments have been going better (near as expected without the wins) thought I would get in more volume but it’s been a challenge adding other networks and games.

blah

BUT

ADRENALINE RUSH IS ON….

FTP has come to my rescue and released Adrenaline Rush (ADR).  It’s a 10bb cap game with no call buts.  I LOVE IT.  I mean who wants to call in a cap game anyhow.  There was snap up roar about this game when it was released;

“is it beatable after rake?”

“10bb is solved”

“Stupid gamble blah blah blah”

Anyhow in the end I am sure that there will be an edge to be had.  There is a special promotion on at the moment for knock outs so I know that there are more players in the pool, but I am really hoping that this game takes off enough so that I can run it with my tournament schedule and grind something simple with some good rakeback.

While I mention the games being beatable I managed to go on an epic down swing to start the games.  But like I say “You can’t keep a good man down” and I have managed to grind my way out of that nasty 50+bi down swing.  All that down swing proves is how exceptional I am and out of the normal 95%. I thought for sure that I was going to drop below that worst line until Tuesday.  Things are looking up, happy with the game, and ready to put in some sick volume next week.

adr

 

Red is the guy who runs the worse, reminds you of anyone

variance

Tomorrow I think that I am going to try and play 10k hands and see where I am on the knock out leader board.  Playing at half pace I am inside the top twenty so I think that I can make a charge for a top five spot.

Going to keep this short, and will get a post in before the next thirty days, probably more like five.